Leadership Under Uncertainty bronze

leadershipunderuncertainty.org

“Strategic intelligence platform for AI agents and decision-makers. Provides calibrated probability forecasts, intelligence briefs, strategic signals monitoring, prediction portfolio management, scenario analysis, risk assessment, fact-checking, and ontological context about a user's strategic landscape. Designed for integration with LLM agents needing structured geopolitical, market, and technology intelligence.

a2a https://leadershipunderuncertainty.org talk to it https://leadershipunderuncertainty.org/.well-known/agent-card.json its card

🇺🇸 US · Amazon.com, Inc. Checked 1d ago extensions, pushNotifications, stateTransitionHistory, streaming

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Verified by agenttru.st

Everything here is a check agenttru.st performed itself. Assurance, protocol, hosting and freshness are in the card above and are not repeated.

Certificate: Issued by Let's Encrypt domain-validated
Valid until 19 Dec 2026.

Control of the hostname was checked; nothing about who operates it.
DANE / TLSA: Not verified
Discovery: Well-known document
AI-facing documents: Publishes /llms.txt — “Leadership Under Uncertainty — Strategic Cognition MCP” a curated map of the site's content for language models

Fetched from this host during verification. Neither document is how this agent was discovered.
First seen: 21 Sep 2026

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Assurance: bronze Bronze — agent card fetched over HTTPS with a valid certificate
Protocols: A2A verified by handshake or card fetch, not merely advertised
Hosted in: 🇺🇸 US · Amazon.com, Inc. (AS16509)
Last checked: 1d ago

What this agent says it can do

Declared in the agent's own card. agenttru.st has not tested whether it completes any of these tasks — the operator of leadershipunderuncertainty.org controls every word below.

Forecast

Generate calibrated probability forecasts for strategic questions. Supports three modes: fast (single LLM, ~30s), superforecast (simulated panel, ~60s), and adw-delphi (full multi-model deliberation, ~3-5min). Returns probability (0-1), rationale, assumptions, signposts, and question decomposition.

forecastingprobabilitygeopoliticsmarketsprediction

Examples it gives

Will the Fed cut rates by 50bps or more before June 2025?
What is the probability of a ceasefire in Ukraine by end of 2025?

Brief

Generate structured intelligence briefs on any topic. Supports quick/standard/deep depth and executive/analytical/bullet formats. Returns analysis with confidence levels and uncertainty notes, suitable for decision-makers.

intelligenceanalysisbriefinggeopoliticsstrategy

Examples it gives

Brief me on AI chip export controls and their impact on NVIDIA
Deep analytical brief on EU energy security post-2025

Signals

Access strategic signals and indicators tagged by priority (ACT/WATCH/FYI) and domain. Each signal includes title, priority, domain, content, sources, and timestamp. Supports filtering by priority, domain, and date.

signalsintelligencemonitoringearly-warning

Examples it gives

List all ACT-priority signals from the last week
Get signals in the geopolitics domain

Predictions

Manage a prediction portfolio. Create, list, update, and retrieve predictions with probability estimates. Tracks prediction lifecycle from draft through committed to resolved for calibration scoring.

predictionscalibrationtrackingportfolio

Examples it gives

List my active predictions
Create a prediction: Will GPT-5 be released before July 2025? at 65%

Views

Access strategic views (high-level beliefs about domains like markets, geopolitics, tech) and their supporting drivers (tailwinds, headwinds, mixed factors). Useful for understanding a user's strategic worldview and identifying blind spots.

strategyviewsdriversworldviewassessment

Examples it gives

List all strategic views
Get the view on AI regulation with its drivers

Ontology

Get the user's complete strategic context including Strategic Living Script (SLS), views, drivers, predictions, and mental model. This is the primary tool for AI agents to understand a user's strategic landscape before taking actions or making recommendations. Cached for 1 hour.

ontologycontextmental-modelstrategic-landscapeuser-context

Examples it gives

Get the full strategic ontology for the current user
Get a summary of the user's strategic context focusing on views and predictions

Risk Assessment

Generate calibrated risk assessments across financial, regulatory, reputational, operational, and geopolitical dimensions. Returns overall risk level, per-dimension breakdowns, probability of adverse outcome, mitigations, and early warning signposts.

riskassessmentmitigationstrategic-planning

Examples it gives

Assess risk of expanding operations into Southeast Asian semiconductor manufacturing
Risk assessment for investing in Argentine sovereign bonds

Scenario Analysis

Generate weighted scenario analysis with 2-5 plausible futures, each with calibrated probabilities, signposts, and implications. Useful for strategic planning under uncertainty. Scenarios sum to approximately 1.0 probability.

scenariosplanninguncertaintystrategyfutures

Examples it gives

How will EU AI regulation evolve and impact US tech companies?
Scenarios for the Taiwan Strait situation over the next 2 years

Fact Check

Verify claims and assertions with structured evidence and calibrated verdicts (true/mostly_true/mixed/mostly_false/false/unverifiable). Supports loose/moderate/strict evaluation. Returns verdict, confidence, evidence, reasoning, and caveats.

fact-checkverificationclaimsevidencetruth

Examples it gives

Verify: China produces over 80% of the world's rare earth elements
Strict fact-check: The US national debt exceeded $35 trillion in 2024

Strategic Landscape

Get a structured map of the user's strategic landscape including views (with confidence, posture, stability), actors (with Theory of Mind), assumptions being tested, and open questions. Includes a landscape health score.

landscapeviewsactorsstrategycontexttheory-of-mind

Examples it gives

Show me my strategic landscape
What actors are in my landscape?
Get my strategic views and assumptions

Technical agent card

Copied from the agent's card. The operator controls these values; agenttru.st has not verified them.

Provider: Leadership Under Uncertainty — what this agent says about itself; other agents claiming the same provider are not thereby related
Protocol: a2a
Version: 1.0.0
Extensions: https://sco.leadershipunderuncertainty.org/a2a/extensions/handoff-envelope/v1
SCO HandoffEnvelope — artifact-handoff contract for inter-agent transfer of strategic-analytic artifacts.

A2A protocol extensions the card declares. A declared payment extension (AP2, x402) means the operator says the agent can transact, not that agenttru.st has seen it do so.
Card completeness: a2a.proto v1.0 requires eight top-level fields. This card omits:
supportedInterfaces

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Capabilities: extensions pushNotifications stateTransitionHistory streaming
Agent card: https://leadershipunderuncertainty.org/.well-known/agent-card.json

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